The geo-economic competition between the West and China in Africa is redefining the continent’s relations and inadvertently fostering stability. Recently, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda made two visits to neighbouring Kenya in just 16 days, between April 30 and May 16, 2024, ahead of Kenyan President William Ruto’s meeting with US President Joe Biden in Washington D.C.
During their discussions, China’s return to complete the East African Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) was announced, which had stalled, paralysing prospects for Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The second visit by Museveni carried a sense of urgency, as Ruto was set to visit America on May 21, 2024. Their talks centred around the Chinese Road and Belt Initiative (RBI) versus the West’s Global Infrastructure and Investment Initiative (PGII).
The PGII, led by the United States alongside other Group of Seven members, aims to fund infrastructure projects in developing nations, countering China’s growing influence. Ruto’s visit to America yielded significant benefits, including promises of debt restructuring and Kenya’s elevation to a major non-NATO ally (MNNA) status, allowing for deeper shared military functions with the US State Department.
China’s return to complete the SGR comes with a substantial $6 billion loan for each beneficiary country, which may worsen the debt trap. East Africa owes America nearly as much as China, but the new deal with America offers more favourable terms.
Thrilled with a new regional status, plus a hefty aid package, it’s unclear how welcoming Nairobi will be to more Chinese loans, especially given Washington’s concerns.
The completion of the Lobito Corridor, a 1,300km railway line by the West, connecting Angola, Zambia, and DRC, for example, may lead to opening a second corridor from Kenya through Uganda and Rwanda to the mineral-rich eastern DRC region, reducing dependence on Chinese loans. This shift may, unintentionally turn into the most effective strategy leading to end of conflicts in the Great Lakes Region (GLR) but will certainly drive China to review its debt structures to Africa in order to remain competitive.
By and large, the West-Sino rivalry in Africa will gradually foster stability but also create further debt dynamics that perpetuate the continent’s increased dependence on loans. Upon review of the current debt burden, African nations will likely kickstart a fresh round of borrowing, which emphasizes the need for prudent financial management and diversified partnerships.
Dr Swaib K Nsereko,
Lecturer, Islamic University in Uganda (IUIU)
Mass Communication Dept
P.O Box 7689 Kampala, Uganda
Tel: +256740994323
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