By Simon Kimoyi
Kampala International University
On March 8, the Commander, Land Forces of Uganda Peoples Defense Forces, Lt Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, also son to President Museveni and his Advisor, announced his retirement from the army. Hours later this position changed, with him saying he is still serving for eight more years! The development comes with a number of implications politically and militarily.
In making the announcement and later rescinding it, both Lt Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba and the Commander-in-Chief, President Museveni did not follow the due procedure of the law; not due to ignorance or unaware of what they were doing. They are fully deliberate in their actions.
In his twitter handle, Gen Muhoozi published thus, ‘’After 28 years of service in my (mark, my) glorious military, the greatest military in the world, I ‘am happy to announce my retirement.”
The communication was widely picked by the world media on to their respective audiences. But later on a video clip featuring Muhoozi and Andrew Mwenda, a Kampala veteran journalist and strategy craftsman, went viral on the internet with both men stressing one point: retirement—if not now, next time. ‘Now’ implies political season 2o26 to 2030 and ‘next time’ is season 2030 to 2036. By 2026 the General will be 51 and 56 by 2030. That is eight years from now, still energetic. The postponement from now to next time was attributed to the intervention of president Yoweri Museveni who is said to have denounced the hurried announcement.
Retirement from the Ugandan army is conditioned on voluntary application to the Commissions and Appointments Board chaired by the Chief of Defense Forces—CDF who forwards to the Commander-in-Chief—CIC, or after becoming 40 years of age for a Lieutenant and a Captain or after becoming 45 years of age for a Major, or after becoming 47 years of age for a Lieutenant Colonel. In other circumstances commanders may opt to retire an officer whose services are no longer needed or an officer can be retired based on medical reasons cited by the Medical Board. Whereas Lt Gen Muhoozi is 47 years and therefore can retire, there is no evidence of him adhering to any of the above procedures. Besides there is no requirement of him making retirement plans public except for personal strategic reasons.
Politically, in order to stand for president in Uganda, you must be a civilian. Therefore, Muhoozi must be home soon. The mere announcement of his retirement, even if not yet, is enough to send signals around that will help him to know who is or not with him within the ruling NRM party establishment, the official opposition as well as regionally and internationally. He needs this in order to install a formidable team in the shortest time of popularizing his candidature. So he now expects local, regional and international allies to line up with encouragement of him to go on with the aspirations. These will constitute a team to begin with and help him isolate enemies.
The development suggests a possibility, mark, possibility of Museveni not offering his candidature in 2026. This is demonstrated by his recent stepped-up maneuvers in the region to ensure that the East African Political Federation is achieved within the next few years, after the entry of the Democratic Republic Congo and Somalia into the bloc. He wants this to be the African ‘center of gravity.’ He has since reconciled with Mr Raila Odinga of Kenya so that he can be on good terms with any candidate that emerges as Kenya’s next president. He enjoys a warm relationship with the Tanzanian president, Samia Suluhu Hassan as is the case with those of Burundi and DRC; Evariste Ndayishimiye and Felix Tshisekedi respectively. He is working on restoring full relations with President Paul Kagame of Rwanda with his son, Muhoozi singularly playing the mediatory role. He is convinced that after becoming 81 years of age in 2026, he will be more peacefully accepted as East Africa’s maiden statesman president than continuing to hold onto Uganda where temptations of military violence against civilians have become integral to sustaining him in power. These practices are becoming more unattainable in the current digital space. But also reliance on the military is more inviting for a military coup which is historically a Ugandan hobby.
Militarily, because the Commander-in Chief had previously declined to approve retirement applications of other senior and veteran officers such as Gen David Sejusa he could not straight away approve that of his son, the first time it reaches his desk. He had to appear delaying it like he has done with others. This implies that Gen Sejusa will actually soon get his retirement granted shortly ahead of Gen Muhoozi. In the meantime, like at the political front, Muhoozi is going to use this time to measure the levels of military loyalty and readiness to propel him like they have always done his dad in the scenario that the population out rightly rejects him on account of his father’s long stay in power.
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