When I authored the article titled, ‘THIS IS WHY MUSEVENI IS SADLY GOING TO WIN THE 2021 ELECTIONS’, I received a lot of email messages after its publication in the Newvision and other media. A lot of people are now saying that my article is proof that Museveni never rigs elections and that Besigye never won the 2016 elections. Their conclusions are a total misrepresentation of the facts and conclusion in the article.
Ugandans should know that election rigging doesn’t only happen on election day. It’s something the people in power work on over a long period of time. The fact that Museveni controls the Electoral Commission (EC) and the Uganda police and army throughout the campaigns, yet he’s also a candidate, is part of the election rigging process. It’s no mistake that it was designed that way and he has repulsed all advocations for that to change.
According to the European Union Election Observer Mission, 85% of tally centres didn’t print sub county results by polling station during the 2016 elections. So, it’s possible that those that weren’t printed would have been Besigye’s votes, but I guess we will never know.
Thirdly, during the same election, the EC failed to deliver ballots to several polling stations around the country, and this frustrated voters waiting in queues. Voting materials were delayed in Mbale, Muzimya municipality, Wakiso district, and parts of Kampala. These are areas known to support opposition in almost every election. There is no guarantee that this isn’t going to happen again in this election. The fact is that some Ugandans won’t vote for their candidate come 14th January 2021, and they will be hurt, as Besigye’s supporters were in 2016. And this is purely an excuse for rigging, and you can do nothing about it.
That said, structures would help any political party to do well during an election. It’s one way of going into an election with an assured number of votes—all that the party needs is to make sure that all people leading various party organs are registered to vote. As a result, it wasn’t surprising that of all 112 districts, Besigye won only in 14 after the 2016 elections, yet FDC had some structures in some districts. Besigye’s wins came mainly from Soroti, Pader, Lira, Gulu, Tororo, Mbale, Sironko, Gulu, Amuru, Ngora, Masaka, Kampala and Wakiso. Besigye gained a net increase of 1.2 million votes compared to Museveni’s increase of only 189,134 votes. So, just imagine, FDC had some good structures, which probably explains Besigye’s ability to secure some votes that could have been rigged by a system totally controlled by Museveni. But imagine a popular candidate, as Kyagulanyi Sentamu seemingly is, but his party, NUP, has no recognisable structures on the ground, but he is highly dreaming of winning the election. Seriously?
Even the few structures on the ground by opposition parties are always frustrated by the state. The party in power has a problem respecting and promoting the spirit of multi partism ushered in the year 2005.That’s why a lot of people opt to go independent. As a result, Independent candidates have won more parliamentary seats than any opposition party since 2006.
Local government elections normally follow parliamentary and presidential elections by one week. Because of the advantages of NRM structures, the party won 82 of the 112 district chairperson seats, independents won 17 seats, while FDC and UPC each won 4. FDC won in Gulu and Ngora, and Lukwago retained his office as Lord Mayor. In this election, because of NRM structures, Museveni is mathematically only chasing 1.5 million votes in order to win the election. Even if he ends getting half of it, he will use his powers of incumbency to smoothen things up,i.e. rigging his way in.
Being an incumbent is always an advantage for Museveni and other NRM candidates, as they already have voter recognition and use of state resources to run their offices. They receive more coverage on televisions, radios and public venues. Their national grassroot mobilisation network is unparalleled in Uganda at the moment. Yes, it’s illegal to use government resources to campaign under section 27 of the presidential elections Act(2005) and Section 25 of the Parliamentary Elections Act(2005), but they don’t give a damn—Museveni is the top law in Uganda.
Fear of political upheaval is another advantage that the NRM enjoys. A lot of people that were old enough during Obote 1, Amin and Obote 2, know what it’s like for the country to be at war. So, Museveni has always taken advantage of their fears. He is actually doing it in this election,too. Whenever Kyagulanyi is arrested, or people following him are killed, many lay observers think that it’s Kyagulanyi benefiting from this situation more than Museveni, but it’s the other way round. However, everyday the opposition is attacked, NRM,too, takes a hit in the long term. That’s why Obote’s UPC and Moi’s KANU are off the shelves at the moment.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyagulanyi suspends his campaigns again and again till when he psychologically gives up. Have you heard of the story of the wind and the sun? It basically says that if you want to get a man to take off his coat, you don’t blow it off. You just put him in a room, turn on the heaters, and he will take it off on his own.
The fact is that Museveni wishes to die a president. That’s why when he turned 72 in August 2016, he found a way of manipulating the constitution to remove the age limit on the presidency. He didn’t do this for someone else to take his chair—forget it
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