I am one of those Ugandans who believe that the 2021 presidential election is a special one. The arrival, rise and dominance of Robert Kyagulanyi a.k.a. Bobi Wine in the politics of the country has greatly changed the shape of elections in the country.
Unlike before when the contestants capitalised on their rich and wide experience in the politics of the country, the Bobi Wine effect is a clear indicator that the country is ready for generational leaders and one’s wide and rich experience in the politics of the country may have a very less influence on the people’s choice of who their next president is going to be. In a country where the youth form the majority, the battle is going to be between the majority young people who form the oppressed and the minority old who are in power. It should be also recalled that Robert Kyagulanyi is a darling among people from all social, economic and political backgrounds. We have seen the young, the old, the rich, the poor, people from different tribes, political parties, etc. all coming out to openly declare their support for Kyagulanyi.
Going by the World Population Prospects of 2018, Uganda has a total population of 42,739,036 people. The adult population of Uganda is 20, 531, 220 people (about 48%). The young population of Uganda is 22, 197, 816 people (about 52%). Out of the adult population which accounts for about 48%, only about 14% of Ugandans above 20 years are adults above 40 years. This means that about 34% of Ugandans are between 20 years and 40 years, about 20% more than their counterparts who are above 40 years.
The Electoral Commission announced that Uganda has about 20 million voters which suggests that almost all adult Ugandans are eligible voters.
In its just updated voters’ register, the NRM Electoral Commission through its chairman Mr Tanga Odoi claimed that NRM has over 11 million voters who are going to participate in the forthcoming elections. This is over 55% of the country’s voters’ population. Going into the forthcoming elections, NRM is signalling its opponents that they already have an advantage of numbers, which is highly contested.
It is on record that Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi and his People Power Movement (Alliance) have attracted the largest number of youths in the country. Out of the 48% of Uganda’s adult population, the youths between 20 and 40 years account for 34%, and majority of these are in favour of power change. There is no way how NRM can claim 11 million voters, going by these statistics.
This is an eye opener for all Ugandans who are struggling for change. In a situation where one of the presidential candidates appoints the Electoral Commission, it is hard for the opposition to get victory. You should recall that eight of the Electoral Commission officials have already been fired by the same presidential candidate allegedly for refusing to award the contract of printing ballot papers to the German company he had proposed.
To make matters worse, the Electoral Commission boss came out to claim that these officials had not been fired but, out of their own volition, had tendered in their resignation after their early retirement. One should ask why all the eight officials could all retire at the same time especially when the country is already in the season of elections.
We should also recall that all these come at a time when the opposition parties have just rejected the elections roadmap that was presented to them by the Electoral Commission boss who they blame to have received this roadmap from one of the presidential candidates.
We should also recall that the Police, LDU and other security agencies continue to be partisan in the manner they operate. Right from the start of this process, these have always been used to stop opposition gatherings including consultation meetings. These agencies have always been used to illegally arrest and detain opposition candidates on unclear grounds. Several times opposition candidates have been stopped from attending radio and TV political talk shows which is against their rights and freedoms as guaranteed by the Constitution.
All these are signals that we are going into a process that lacks a levelled ground. This, however, does not imply that success cannot be achieved. Success can be achieved, and the liberation can be realized.
President Idi Amin, while briefing Ugandan pugilists who were to represent the country at the Olympics, reminded them how the ground was not levelled and how it would be difficult to defeat the Whites in the ring. He urged them to knock out their opponents and leave no opportunity for referees to cheat for the opponents.
With the overwhelming numbers of youths turning out to vote overwhelmingly for Kyagulanyi Robert, the Electoral Commission will be left with no alternative but to declare Kyagulanyi president. I believe numbers can remove Museveni from power.
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