With the rise of Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu alias Bobi Wine within the ranks of the Country’s opposition, various political analysts have swiftly moved to rule out long time Museveni challenger – Rtd col Kizza Besigye in the race to end the incumbent Museveni’s 35 year old rule, with political new born child – Bobi wine receiving preferential consideration ahead of the FDC’s father figure.
Besigye’s four unsuccessful attempts at dislodging Museveni has been one of the reasons most analysts think he should give way for the Kyadondo East MP to lead the opposition into 2021. They reason that four attempts is indeed long enough to expect anything new the former Museveni bush war ally could still do to crash the NRM administration that still looks indomitable.
Anti Besigye propagandists have often accused him of being a Museveni apologist at the summit of opposition, with a concerted NRM and FDC agenda to prolong the incumbent administration, an allegation the former Presidential candidate vehemently castigates as being untruthful and diversionary.
With negative publicity against the most threatening Museveni challenger of all time intensifying with the raise to political stardom of Kyadondo East Legislator Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, questions emerge as to whether ruling out the smartest political strategist from the opposition since 1986 when Museveni took power may not turn out to be the most blind political miscalculation by the opposition and ruling government alike.
Former Museveni ally and now Museveni’s Minister for Lands Beti Olive Namisango Kamya seems to have taken notice of Besigye’s mastery on how to take on Museveni, a specific she has always heralded to his employers as a warning against taking the former LRA combatant lightly.
” For me I know that our main opponent is Besigye and not Bobi wine. Besigye has his 3.5 million votes to capitalize on unlike Bobi Wine whose unconsolidated political fame can not be substantiated by numbers,” the former leader of the Uganda Federal Movement party said during a talkshow on a local TV last year.
His point of view is shared by Government Spokesperson Ofwono Opondo who equally believes that keeping eyes on Kyagulanyi would be a total deviation from the man upon whom focus should be put or else prepare for a shock a kin to that of 2016 when preference was put on Mbabazi as Besigye reorganised.
Whereas many might have interpreted Kamya and Opondo’s observations with contempt and as intended to bash the young Presidential hopeful, the fact that Besigye has always had a way of sailing through above his other counterparts in the fight to dislodge Museveni speaks volumes. Ever since Besigye cut his teeth in opposition politics in 2001, he has never looked back, coming second the NRM strongman Kaguta Museveni on each of the last four occasions despite trying the challenge a long with many other people including former Premier Amama Mbabazi in 2016.
Over the years, Besigye and allies have endeavoured to build a mass party with branches in each and every single district of the country and with leadership structures from national to village level. Eventhough these are not as robust as those of their counterparts from the ruling National Resistance Movement, they have always been so instrumental in canvassing votes for Besigye and ensuring a national presence each time he has set out to challenge for the top seat. With these structures operational at all levels, fans and haters a like had better not rule him out without due consideration.
In 2016, Besigye’s dominance above a much favored Mbabazi offered lessons which ought to be referred to before anybody downplays his chances at the presidency yet. He had appeared reduced to playing second fiddle to Mbabazi who many change desperate Ugandans looked at as the man to finally manage the complexities of his former employer in an election. Even though it’s not wrong to say that Mbabazi was a more popular choice at the time of selecting who was the best fit for Museveni in 2015, it’s also not wrong to say that things got a lot complex for him when it came to running his campaigns. The electoral program given to him by the electoral commission was one to forget. From Gulu for instance, he found himself needed to hold another rally in Masaka the following day which wasn’t feasible for him. As such, his allies all over the country started getting demoralized.
Whereas these are things that Besigye has seen and devised a long term mechanism to always manage, there will always be a hard time for any new entrants under similar circumstances.
While foretelling what might actually happen during the 2021 Presidential challenge however, it also ought to be considered that FDC will for the first time since 2001 be without it’s second most influential leader – General Gregory Mugisha Muntu who is also likely to be in the same race with his former opposition ally come next year. His departure left obvious wounds for the party to nurse for longer that it could afford as it’s most certainly possible that as we approach next year’s polls, a lot of the current party MPs will have already shifted allegiance to Muntu’s new ANT party. Some of those MPs likely to cut short their loyalty to the Najjanankumbi establishment include; Robert Centenary of Kasese Municipality, Winnie Kizza, Ogenga Latigo, Arua Municipality’s Kasiano Wadri, Jinja East’s Paul Mwiru among others.
Whether or not FDC will still be in position to hold onto their dominance at the top of the opposition game will depend on the fruits out of their new President – Patrick Amuriat’s nationwide mobilisation campaigns that were aimed at reinvigorating the party, a long with the Besigye’s People’s Government structures with leadership at all levels from national to villages.
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