We saw in part one that to become a president of a country, there must be non-human interventions or an invisible hand of God. You cannot become a leader if God has not allowed it. In His infinite wisdom, God decides that country X requires such a leader at a particular moment in time, irrespective of how cruel or a blessing that leader might become.
We talked about the various Ugandan presidents and how they got that chance to lead us. Almost to a person, none had the credentials required to rule over us. But they ruled us regardless and even messed up for years.
Then we paused a question: how will President Museveni’s son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba (MK) become heir to the presidency of his father?
In this second installment we continue with that discussion.
EVEN A COHERENT STRATEGY CANNOT WIN THE PRESIDENCY:
Many great politicians like the charismatic Dr. Kizza Besigye and overqualified Dr. Olara Otunnu came up with good plans but also failed to become presidents of Uganda. They even had plenty of foreign backing in terms of moral support and money.
In the early NRM years, Besigye spoke like Museveni and espoused the same ideas and beliefs for a better Uganda. But when he turned and told us in 1999 that his erstwhile comrade and former patient, Yoweri Museveni, was an ogre that ate it’s children, some people started to wonder what was wrong with humans!
But Besigye had a plan, a very good plan to force Museveni into retirement. He tried four times (2001; 2006; 2011 and 2016) even with foreign backing but failed.
It is even plausible that Kizza Besigye might have worn one or two of those elections but failed to become a president. Why? God had not allowed it.
In Zambia there was a small man called George Titus Fredrick Chiluba who defeated David Kenneth Kaunda (KK) who had ruled for 27 years. And Chiluba wasn’t even among those they looked at when the hour of political change came to Zambia. There was a huge rally for political reforms organized and Chiluba happened to be given a chance to also say something. He was the leader of a trade union and really an insignificant man but very eloquent and intelligent.
He made a speech and the people loved it. The organizers, seasoned politicians, were alarmed when the population warmed up to the midget man. He went on to rule Zambia for 10 years only failing when he tried to change the constitution to rule for a third term.
Chiluba, now dead, he forgot that God had only allowed him to rule over Zambians for 10 years nothing more.
Then of course neighbor to Zambia is a beautiful and rich country called Zimbabwe. It had very smart leaders during it’s liberation wars like Edgar Tekele, Canan Banana, Bishop Abe Mzolewa, Joshua Nkoma, Ndabandingi Sitole, among others but a pompous Robert Gabriel Mugabe stole the show. He wasn’t even among the brave freedom fighters but he ruled from 1980 till his death in 2017.
In Zimbabwe too lived another good man called Morgan Tsangalai who tried including getting billions from white settlers but failed to become a president. Even as Mugabe messed up, Tsangalai was always overlooked. Then another freedom fighter, Emerson Mnangwaga, came on the scene with favors and took over.
Friend what I am labouring to tell you is simple: don’t get killed because of politics. “Que sera sera-what will be, will be!”
ELECTION NUMBERS:
If it was about the number of votes one gets in an election especially in a Ugandan election, Paul Kawanga Ssemwogerere would have become our president after the December 1980 elections.
I remember in 1980 how I sat with my brother Sserunkuuma Mujuli, now a retired judge of the High Court of Tanzania (he was then an S.4 student) as the voting results were streaming in. He had a small transistor radio the entire village used to congregate on to listen to news. He would often explain those news to the rest of the villagers and I used to wonder what he would become in the future!
The first day of announcing the results favored DP therefore Paul Ssemwogerere looked like he will win the election. This attracted wild celebrations especially in Buganda as many people were seen gyrating and eating roasted meat. Drinking binges became the order as Obote supporters- UPC diehards- were sent into hiding.
I don’t know for what reason but I remained with brother Mujulizi (the rest of the villagers had joined throngs of dancers) as he carried on explaining the results to me as they streamed in. He told me the following:
“You see, Ibra, DP is winning but UPC will select the president…”
My father, a silent UPC member, had given a cow to DP supporters as they came to our home shouting and waving banana leaves. The next day he gave another to UPC supporters after Paulo Muwanga had intervened on behalf of Milton Obote.
Of course my father, like Mujulizi, knew something was being cooked by Milton Obote led by Paulo Muwanga and other thieves.
I also recall when we were coming from one of the earlier political rallies with my father at Kasambya in Kyotera (it was a DP rally) and many people came singing “DP egumile” and shouting showing excessive love for Kawanga Ssemwogerere and Francis Bengye.
After his rubble-lousing speech, Paul Ssemwogerere had clinched his fist and memorably told the frenzied gathering:
“Twesange Entebbe- We meet in State House!”
I saw my father was in deep thoughts but decided not to say anything. Then we heard him say:
“Abamu nobusiru bwabwe: Ssemwogerere amanyi rodibuloka mekka eziri wano mpaka Entebbe- is Ssemwogerere even aware the obstacles he must overcome before reaching Entebbe to become president?”
It wasn’t about the number of votes folks but some other intervening factors like who had guns or the willingness to sacrifice fellow citizens! It is never about the processes but all about invisible luck or call it fate!
When I met Judge Mujulizi several years later and I inquired how he knew then that Milton Obote would win the 1980 vote, this was his reply:
“I had just completed S.3 at St. Henry’s College Kitovu. Of course like many of my age mates we did not qualify to vote. However, many attended the election rallies, the majority supporting “Egumile Egumile…DP ” Ever the realist, I was not on that band wagon but my friends representing the Buganda dilemma – of being in a Monarchy yet being part of a Republic. At the same time thinking they can rule the Republic even as they despise it.
“I was well informed, while my poor brethren like ever were using emotions – twagala Ssemogerere, Obote twamukyawadda- hoping beyond any realm of reasoning to form a united central government. They even warned me that after the elections, they would return me and other tribes – boys from areas which supported UPC to their homes. Read ‘expel’. (actually many Banyankole supported UPC).
“Of course being one of them ‘muganda’ they told me I would be forewarned so as to escape early, despite being a “UPC sympathiser.”
“That’s how they interpreted my fact- based analysis, which lead to my conclusion that UPC would ‘win’ the ‘elections’.
“Not through ‘mazima na bwenkanya’ as my misinformed ‘believers’ thought or rather ‘wished’. As always Uganda was bigger that Buganda and DP’s Buganda MPs and token pick-ups from here and there would not match UPC’s gerrymandering game. I was also aware that UPC had 17 MPs already chosen even before a single vote was cast. They were unopposed and about 14 were in Lango, Obote’s birth place!”
As my father had also warned, the roadblocks along the way to Entebbe State House were insurmountable.
When in one of the UPC rallies, candidate Milton Obote had looked at some tough-looking soldiers surrounding him (Paulo Muwanga, Tito Okello, Oyite Ojok, Zed Malulu, Bazillio Olara, William Omaria) and said:
“These are my men! Where is Kawanga Semwogerere’s men?”
Even a civilian Milton Obote was aware that ruling Uganda without an own set of commanders was a tough nut to crack. That is why Yoweri Museveni is a class above. He knew that he had to create an own army (NRA/UPDF) if he was to win power and to keep it in perpetuity.
In the 1995 campaigns, candidate Museveni would joke that: “I have the “buma- metals” (meaning bullets) while Kawanga Ssemwogerere has the rosary! Who do you trust to fight Joseph Kony and win?”
In a field of “first among equals”, therefore, Gen. MK will take the day because he has his own soldiers (army) within the UPDF paying allegiance to him. And in a militarized country Uganda long became, a soldier as president is still prized. We may deny this as Hon. Luttamaguzi likes to tell us, but without knowledge of the gun, your chances of becoming Ugandan president are currently very slim indeed.
If it was really about those vote numbers, Bobi Wine and his wife Barbie Itungo would be residing at the Entebbe white house and Museveni and Maama Janet long retired at their farms.
We wouldn’t even be talking about their son Gen. MK who would have retired from the army and joined private business perhaps real estate (ideal Uganda we must all pray for).
But my worry is whether MK will fit into the big shoes of his father given the caliber and character of the people he must contend with both within and without the NRM.
Am I the only Ugandan who is worried or not satisfied with the team leading the “MK Movement” and MK Project?
These fellows except Baraam Barugahare, don’t look like a serious winning team. They come out as removed from reality and already too rich to risk dying for MK. Names like Tamale Mirundi, Frank Gashumba, Uncle Toyota, Andrew Mwenda, Hon. Mawanda, name others, don’t sound like fellows who might face a stone-throwing ghetto yuti.
Bobi Wine is already a mile ahead in organization and name-recognition while Kizza Besigye, the underated chief strategist, is still lurking in the shadows. We even might have surprises like Norbert Mao, Odrek Rwabogo (Museveni’s intelligent son in-law), Rebecca Kadaga and Elton Joseph Mabirizi (the “down-there” candidate of 2016) trying his luck again.
If Maama Janet Museveni allows, we might have JPAM (John Patrick Amama Mbabazi) on the ballot in 2026 actually as the NRM flag bearer.
Everything as said above makes sense if and only if President Yoweri Museveni is not coming back after 2026. “Ekibalo- calculation” as Museveni likes to remind us often, is required here.
THE MUHOOZI QUADRATIC EQUATION:
Those who were not allergic to mathematics, they know what is a quadratic equation. The only way you can solve a quadratic equation is using a quadratic formula no two ways about it. You enter the formula and solve the equation. You can’t use own reasoning or logic. No Sir! You need the formula.
Now what formula will MK use to become our president? Is he going to depend on some esoteric forces, as seen from the examples above, use guns or do something completely different?
But who will have the guts in Uganda to face Gen. MK and inform him how folks become presidents? His father, it seems, has failed to pass over to him this vital aspect of leadership.
The fact is MK remains his father’s son a man with 10 doctorate degrees in political science. Surely he still has one rabbit to pull out of his brimmed hat to save his much-privileged son.
HOW THE TANZANIANS DID IT:
When then Tanzanian president Haj Ali Hassan Mwinyi was finishing his two 5-year terms, there was the question of who should replace him. I should remind you that Mwalimu Julius Nyerere was still alive then.
The two preferred candidates were Benjamin Mkapa a senior CCM (Chama Chamapenduzi) technocrat and a young veteran of the Kagera war Lt. Col (rtd) Jakaya Muliso Kikwete.
To Julius Nyerere, the choice was very simple. Nyerere was inculcating into the minds of Tanzanians the idea of a rotational presidency: from Christian to Muslim then between the two parts making Tanzania, i.e, Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
But the majority of the legislative assembly wanted Jakaya Kikwete and Nyerere preferred Mkapa for now. He told them that Kikwete was still young and besides, he was a Muslim like the outgoing Hassan Mwinyi.
The legislative assembly refused and zeroed in on the young and charming Jakaya Kikwete.
Mwalimu Nyerere had returned to his quarters to rest but very disappointed in the people he was trying to show the light but preferred the dark.
Lo and behold!
As the deliberations were coming to an end on the last day and no compromise in sight, one CCM cadre, an old man highly respected in the party, had stood up and said with tears streaming from his eyes:
“Tangulini ushawuzi wa Mwalimu tunaukata- when did we start to question Mwalimu Nyerere’s ideas?”
Tears were seen in the hall and when Mwalimu Nyerere returned in the afternoon, the entire house, including Jakaya Kikwete had voted for Benjamin Mkapa.
Has President Museveni built such a clout and respect within the NRM where he can say “sing” and everyone starts to sing? Will they accept to follow MK when he orders them to follow? I don’t think so.
He has some really smitten supporters like Hon. Evelyn Anite, but the rest are “semuffu- scare crows” with no real backbones. That is why over 300 NRM MPs stood in Bukedea (at the invitation of Speaker Anet Anita Among) and declared their unwavering support for the son even when the father has not implicitly or explicitly declared his position on that thorny issue.
Therefore deciding for them- NRM leaders- to support MK for the presidency will be a very difficult endeavour indeed.
Today’s last word comes from Mahatma Gandhi:
“The future depends on what we do in the present!”
Adam Kamulegeya
adamkam2003@gmail.com
0779104336
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